Century 21 SGR September 2025 Chicagoland Housing Report

“Where Unique is Commonplace.”

Executive Summary

• Citywide prices: Chicago’s median sale price reached $385,000 in July 2025 (+5.5% YoY), with a median sale price per square foot (PSF) of $280 (+3.3% YoY).
• Momentum: Price growth is steady, sales volumes slightly lower year-over-year, and days-on-market ~54.
• Interest rates: 30-yr mortgage averaged 6.58% (week of Aug 14, 2025), the lowest level of 2025 to date.
• Safety & livability: Violent-crime indicators improved year-to-date versus 2024; CTA ridership continues to rebound from pandemic lows.
• Outlook: We expect modest price gains across most Chicago submarkets through year-end, then 2–4% annual appreciation in 2026–2027, with mortgage rates drifting lower in line with the Fed’s projected path.

Method note: Citywide figures are MLS- and public-records–based aggregates sourced from Redfin and other public datasets; segment breakouts below use a mix of observed $/SF benchmarks and conservative sizing assumptions to produce approximate medians/means suitable for consumer communications. Always anchor pricing to a property-specific CMA before advising clients.

Citywide Benchmarks (Chicago city limits)

As of July–August 2025

• Median sale price (all types): $385,000 (+5.5% YoY)
• Median PSF (all types): $280 (+3.3% YoY)
• Homes sold: 2,431 in July (–3.1% YoY)
• Median days on market: 54 (down 1 day YoY)
• Competitiveness: “Somewhat competitive” (average ~3 offers; hot homes ~4% above list)

Neighborhood PSF reference points (illustrative):

• 60601 (Loop/Downtown): $442 PSF (+7.3% YoY) — condo-heavy core.
• 60637 (Hyde Park/Woodlawn): $189 PSF (+21.9% YoY) — strong YoY recovery in the South Lakefront corridor.

Segmented Prices by Property Type & Size

A. Condominiums (citywide)
Approximated using PSF benchmarks and typical sizes; see footnotes.

B. Townhomes (citywide)

C. Detached Single-Family (citywide)

How we derived these

• Citywide median PSF: $280 (all types). Downtown/Loop skew >$400 PSF, many South/West Side areas run $175–$250; condos trade at a premium to the all-type PSF, single-family typically at a discount. We therefore apply ~$320 PSF for condos, ~$300 PSF for townhomes, and ~$240 PSF for detached to produce conservative citywide medians; means assume a modest 8–12% high-end skew. Downtown condo medians will index higher (e.g., Loop zip 60601 at $442 PSF). Always verify by neighborhood ZIP and building.

Appreciation: Year-to-Date & 3-Year Lookback

• Year-over-year (YoY): Chicago median sale price +5.5% in July 2025. YTD price trajectory (Jan–Jul) is roughly in the +4–6% corridor, varying by submarket and property type.
• Three-year trend: Chicago’s home price indices (Case-Shiller & ZHVI) show mid-teens cumulative gains since 2022, with inner-core condo markets lagging early post-pandemic but catching up in 2024-2025. (Directional inference from Case-Shiller Chicago trend; exact 3-yr % varies by index cut.)

Where Prices Are Rising Fastest (YoY)

Top 5 Chicago Neighborhoods by YoY Median Price Change (July 2025):

1. Hyde Park +40.9% (median $343k) — rebound + new-development spillovers from adjacent Woodlawn/South Lakefront.
2. Logan Square +17.9% (median $635k) — low inventory and strong buyer demand on the Northwest Side.
3. Loop (ZIP 60601 proxy) +7.3% (median $392k) — downtown recovery continues; PSF $442.
4. South Loop +8.2% (median $417k) — condo absorption improving as rates eased.
5. West Town +4.7% (median $650k) — resilient despite higher borrowing costs.

Top 5 Suburbs by YoY Median Price Change (July 2025):

• Elmhurst +38.2% (median $640k).
• Evanston (ZIP 60201) +27.4% (median $615k).
• Skokie (ZIP 60076) +14.4% (median $410k).
• Berwyn +9.8% (median $310k).
• Cicero +9.0% (median $270k).

Note: Rankings based on current Redfin neighborhood/ZIP market pages; small-sample neighborhoods can show elevated volatility month-to-month. Always confirm with a recent 3- to 6-month rolling median before quoting.

Where Building Is Booming (and Where It Isn’t)

Active/new-construction corridors

• Fulton Market/West Loop: High-rise residential and mixed-use pipeline remains the city’s most active; infill and office-to-res conversions add supply near the core. (Multiple project trackers/news; Urbanize, Crain’s.)
• South Loop/Near South: Continued condo and rental deliveries around Printer’s Row, Coliseum Park, Motor Row.
• Bronzeville/South Lakefront: Townhome/condo infill and mid-rise momentum, reflected in PSF and price gains.
• North Branch/Lincoln Park riverfront (Marcey corridor): Large-site proposals are contested but advancing in modified forms.

Areas showing resistance to new construction & why

• Lincoln Park/Old Town: Height/density fights highlight aldermanic prerogative and neighbor pushback over traffic, shadows, and “neighborhood character.” Key recent example: the months-long City Council fight over a 590-unit Lincoln Park proposal.
• 606/Pilsen anti-gentrification zones: The city raised demolition surcharges (now $20,000 per unit / $60,000 per building) and expanded protected areas to slow teardowns and displacement; these rules can temper redevelopment velocity.

Schools, Safety, and Transit: What Movers Ask First

Schools (CPS District)

• Four-year graduation rate reported around 84–85% in 2023–24 (new system baseline coming 2025). College enrollment rates have improved from pandemic lows.

Crime (citywide)

• YTD 2025 vs. 2024: CPD CompStat shows double-digit declines in several categories (e.g., murders –31% YTD vs. 2024 as of Week 32), with thefts still elevated vs. 2021. Keep in mind CPD notes data are preliminary and subject to revision.

Transit

• CTA ridership grew again in 2024 (rail ~127.5M rides; bus ~181.7M), and 2025 monthly reports show continued recovery. Proximity to ‘L’ stations remains a strong value signal for buyers/sellers.

Price per SF by Property Type (Context & Ranges)

Because Chicago’s housing stock is hyper-local, $PSF varies more by location than by property type. Benchmarks to guide consumer conversations:

• Condos (citywide): ~$300–$350 PSF; Downtown core frequently $400–$475+ PSF (e.g., Loop $442 PSF). Lakefront North Side buildings often $325–$425 PSF; South/West Side condo stock can trade $175–$275 PSF depending on finishes, HOA, and transit adjacency.
• Townhomes: ~$275–$325 PSF in most North/West Side neighborhoods; higher where new-construction inventory dominates (3-story infill). (Derived from citywide medians and active-listing/sold comps.)
• Detached single-family: ~$220–$260 PSF citywide, with North Side premiums and South/West Side discounts; larger homes typically carry a size discount on $PSF. (Anchored to city median $280 PSF—all types—and ZIP examples above.)

Forecast: Prices & Rates (2025–2027)

Interest rates

• Now: Freddie Mac PMMS shows 30-yr at ~6.58% (Aug 14), a 2025 low. The 52-week range has been ~6.08%–7.04%.
• Fed path: The June 2025 SEP (“dot plot”) implies a lower policy rate over 2025–2027 (median dots stepping down), which should gradually ease mortgage rates barring inflation surprises.

Our price outlook (citywide medians; base case)

• Rest of 2025: +1–3% from current levels (seasonally normal fall, slightly better affordability as rates eased).
• 2026: +2–4% (inventory rebuild continues; demand benefits from modestly lower rates).
• 2027: +2–4% (trend-like growth; continued divergence by submarket).

Our rate outlook (30-yr FRM; base case ranges)

• Q4 2025: 6.25–6.75%
• 2026 average: 5.75–6.50%
• 2027 average: 5.50–6.25%
  (Anchored to Freddie Mac PMMS levels and the direction implied by the Fed’s SEP; large error bands remain appropriate.)

Methodology, Footnotes & How We Can Help

Data & methods

• Core market stats (citywide medians, PSF, DOM, sales counts): Redfin Market Data (Chicago city page, July 2025).
• Neighborhood & suburb appreciation: Redfin neighborhood/ZIP pages (Hyde Park, Logan Square, South Loop, West Town; Elmhurst, Evanston 60201, Skokie 60076, Berwyn, Cicero).
• PSF context: Citywide $280 PSF; ZIP comparables (e.g., 60601 $442 PSF, 60637 $189 PSF) illustrate intra-city spread.
• Rates: Freddie Mac PMMS weekly average; directional guidance from FOMC SEP (June 2025).
• Schools, crime, transit: CPS press/Illinois Report Card (grad rate ~84–85%); CPD CompStat (YTD declines in several categories); CTA ridership reports (2024 up; 2025 recovery continues).
• Development policy climate: 606/Pilsen demolition surcharge & expansions; aldermanic prerogative coverage (WTTW; City/DOH pages; Block Club).

Footnotes

1. Condo, townhome, and detached median/mean figures in Page 3 reflect conservative citywide estimates derived from PSF benchmarks and typical sizes. Actual medians vary by neighborhood, building vintage, HOA level, renovation quality, and micro-location.
2. “Top 5” lists use point-in-time YoY changes; small-sample areas can spike. We recommend validating with rolling medians before marketing claims.
3. Safety and school statistics are presented to inform livability conversations; buyers should review official CPD dashboards, the Chicago Data Portal, CPS resources, and school-level data before making decisions.

What This Means for Your Clients

• Buyers: Rate relief plus steady inventory makes the fall market more navigable. Focus on neighborhood PSF comps and building-level fundamentals (assessments, reserves, capital projects) for downtown condos; in townhome & SFH corridors, watch block-by-block renovation quality and school-catchment differentials.
• Sellers: Price to the nearest comp cluster (same bed/bath, similar PSF, last 90–120 days). Leverage pre-listing inspection, paint/floor refresh, and professional media to compress DOM in “somewhat competitive” segments.
• Investors: South Lakefront and NW-side transit-served neighborhoods continue to show above-trend YoY; under anti-gentrification overlays (606/Pilsen) model demo surcharges and approval timing into pro formas.